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The selection committee will be picking gymnasts based on many factors including consistency, composure under pressure, and execution, but a key element will be scoring potential. To look at this last factor, we ranked the difficulty scores from the 13 gymnasts on each event as well as their all-around potential.
We used scores from this summer's Secret U.S. Classic and P&G Championships. For individual events, the rankings are by highest D score achieved at either of these two competitions. If there is a tie, we broke the tie by the average D score from both of these competitions. While most gymnasts have three scores (Classics, day one of Championships, and day two of championships), some gymnasts have fewer scores due to injuries or withdrawal from competition.
The gymnasts named to the early nominative roster for USA are Simone Biles, Gabby Douglas, Aly Raisman, Maggie Nichols, Madison Kocian, MyKayla Skinner, and Brenna Dowell. However, the final team will likely be announced this Thursday, October 8 during the selection camp.
VAULT
*Only gymnasts with two different vaults are included| Gymnast | Highest D Score (avg of 2 vaults) | Average D Score | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | MyKayla Skinner | 6.15 | 6.12 |
| 2 | Simone Biles | 6.05 | 6.0 |
Skinner earned the highest start value with her Cheng and Yurchenko double full. Upgrading to the Amanar, which we know is possible for her, would bump her D score up another five tenths. Vault is her strongest for team USA.
While Biles earned a full tenth lower than Skinner, she makes up for this difference with her incredible execution scores, most notably scoring a 9.9 on her Amanar on day two of P&G Championships.
BARS
| Gymnast | Highest D Score | Average D Score | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Brenna Dowell | 6.7 | 6.6 |
| 2 | Madison Kocian | 6.6 | 6.53 |
| 3 | Rachel Gowey | 6.6 | 6.45 |
| 4 | Gabby Douglas | 6.4 | 6.4 |
| 5T | Bailie Key | 6.2 | 6.2 |
| 5T | Ashton Locklear | 6.2 | 6.2 |
| 5T | Amelia Hundley | 6.2 | 6.2 |
| 8 | Simone Biles | 6.2 | 6.17 |
| 9 | Maggie Nichols | 6.1 | 6.03 |
| 10 | MyKayla Skinner | 6.0 | 5.93 |
| 11 | Nia Dennis | 6.0 | 5.9 |
| 12 | Alyssa Baumann | 5.9 | 5.9 |
| 13 | Aly Raisman | 5.8 | 5.8 |
Dowell leads the rankings with the highest difficulty score of a 6.7. Kocian is close behind with a 6.6 but it is also important to note that besides her difficulty, Kocian has been extremely consistent in execution as well. Kocian's three execution scores from the summer are 9.1, 9.0, and 9.0. Gowey is ranked third after earning an impressive 6.6 on day one of Championships.
BEAM
| Gymnast | Highest D Score | Average D Score | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Simone Biles | 6.9 | 6.73 |
| 2 | Aly Raisman | 6.6 | 6.37 |
| 3 | Gabby Douglas | 6.4 | 6.3 |
| 4 | Alyssa Baumann | 6.3 | 6.23 |
| 5 | Maggie Nichols | 6.2 | 6 |
| 6 | Bailie Key | 6.1 | 6.03 |
| 7 | Rachel Gowey | 6.1 | 6.0 |
| 8 | MyKayla Skinner | 6 | 5.93 |
| 9 | Nia Dennis | 5.9 | 5.83 |
| 10 | Madison Kocian | 5.7 | 5.67 |
| 11 | Ashton Locklear | 5.5 | 5.5 |
| 12 | Brenna Dowell | 5.5 | 5.2 |
| 13 | Amelia Hundley | 5.3 | 5.3 |
With a couple summer upgrades on beam, Biles leads the difficulty pack with an incredible 6.9. Raisman is second with a 6.6 and douglas is third with a 6.4. Beam tends to be less consistent in D scores because a fall or missed connection can lower the score substantially.
FLOOR
| Gymnast | Highest D Score | Average D Score | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Simone Biles | 6.9 | 6.83 |
| 2 | Aly Raisman | 6.7 | 6.6 |
| 3 | MyKayla Skinner | 6.5 | 6.17 |
| 4 | Bailie Key | 6.3 | 6.27 |
| 5 | Maggie Nichols | 6.0 | 6.0 |
| 6 | Gabby Douglas | 6.0 | 5.83 |
| 7 | Alyssa Baumann | 5.9 | 5.77 |
| 8 | Madison Kocian | 5.8 | 5.7 |
| 9 | Brenna Dowell | 5.8 | 5.65 |
| 10 | Nia Dennis | 5.7 | 5.5 |
| 11 | Amelia Hundley | 5.6 | 5.6 |
| Rachel Gowey | - | - | |
| Ashton Locklear | - | - |
Not surprisingly, Biles also leads the rankings on floor with a 6.9. Biles also posts the highest average D score out of anyone on any event with a 6.83. Like beam, Raisman is just a few tenths behind and also shows impressive consistency in the difficulty area. Both gymnasts surprisingly suffered a fall this summer but neither was worrisome or something they can't fix. Skinner is third with a 6.5.
ALL AROUND
Based on the event D scores shown above, IF these athletes hit their
highest D scores from every event in one competition, here is where they
would rank in the all around for start value alone:
| Gymnast | Highest D Score Potential | |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Simone Biles | 26.4 |
| 2 | Aly Raisman | 25.4 |
| 3 | MyKayla Skinner | 25 |
| 4T | Gabby Douglas | 24.6 |
| 4T | Maggie Nichols | 24.6 |
| 6 | Bailie Key | 24.3 |
| 7T | Alyssa Baumann | 23.9 |
| 7T | Madison Kocian | 23.9 |
| 9 | Brenna Dowell | 23.8 |
| 10 | Nia Dennis | 23.4 |
| 11 | Amelia Hundley | 22.9 |
| Rachel Gowey | - | |
| Ashton Locklear | - |
Biles has the highest potential all-around score by a full point with a 26.4. Raisman is second with a 25.4, which is very impressive especially considering she has a 5.8 D score on bars, the lowest of the field. In third is Skinner with a 25.
It is important to note that the addition of Amanar vaults bump up gymnasts' D score by five tenths. For Douglas, this would give her a 25.1 to give her the third highest AA potential. For Key, this would give her a 24.8 and, assuming Douglas has the 25.1, Key would then have the fifth highest AA potential. Dowell is another gymnast capable of the Amanar and this would bump her AA potential to a 24.3. Nichols has already upgraded to the Amanar so besides minor skill/combo changes, her AA potential would likely stay around 24.6.
While it's fun to analyze, the D score is only part of the battle. Since these two summer competitions, the gymnasts have focused almost entirely on boosting execution scores. It will be interesting to see who shows up to camp with the cleanest, most consistent routines. Now that we've crunched the numbers, who would you put on your World team?
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